The Federal Reserve's Sept dot plot — chart

評析：內文的點狀圖中，每個點代表一位聯準會委員投票的意見。今年最多在1.25%~1.5%，與6月的結果大致相同。不一樣的是6月時有4位委員建議升更高，這次只剩一位。

明年最多委員建議的利率是2%~2.25%，比今年高0.75%，因為近年來FED每次升息都是1碼(0.25%)，所以媒體才說明年會再升息三次，事實上FED並沒有明說，只是媒體由dot plot 推測的。

但建議2%~2.25%的只有6位(比6月時多一位)，占全部16位委員才1/3多一點，而非多決，顯示一切都可能還有變數。

The Federal Reserve's Sept dot plot — chart
Financial Times 2017 September 20

The Federal Reserve's dot plot of interest-rate projections continued to signal one more rate rise for the year and put the median view of federal funds rate at the end of the year at 1.375 per cent.

The view also remained unchanged for 2018, with a projection of three quarter-percentage point rate rises, with a median view for rates to end next year at 2.125 per cent.

However, for 2019, the dot plot signalled two additional rate rises ending at about 2.7 per cent, down from its previous view of 2.938 per cent.

「The longer run projections (2019 and r*) moved slightly lower,」 noted strategists at TD Securities. 「Markets are discounting this and lower inflation forecast and are focusing more on the unchanged 2017 dots and upbeat statement」.

Here's a look at the dot plot in September.


Here's a look at the dot plot in June.